June 2025 (Page 9)

Target: Iran’s military elite: Israel’s actions heighten regional tensions

Voyennyye deystviya Izrailya protiv Irana mogut razvyazat’ regional’nuyu voynu Armiya oborony Izrailya ob”yavila o nachale operatsii «Am ka lavi» («S narodom kak lev»), kotoraya napravlena ​​na yadernuyu programmu rezhima i vozmozhnosti zapuska raket bol’shoy dal’nosti v Irane. Pervyye udary byli naneseny mnogochislennymi samoletami VVS Izrailya po desyatkam voyennykh tseley v raznykh chastyakh Irana: strategicheskoy infrastrukture, komandnym tsentram, voyennym ob”yektam, shtabam i yadernym ob”yektam. Po mneniyu izrail’skoy storony, k voyennoy operatsii priveli tri osnovnykh faktora. Pervyy faktor zaklyuchayetsya v tom, chto Iran stremitel’no priblizhayetsya k sozdaniyu yadernogo oruzhiya. U nego uzhe dostatochno obogashchennogo urana dlya 15 yadernykh bomb, i iranskiye uchenyye uzhe rabotayut nad sborkoy komponentov. Po mneniyu yevreyskoy storony, iranskiy yadernyy proyekt nakhoditsya na toy stadii, kotoraya vynuzhdayet ikh ne medlit’ i ne zatyagivat’ s otvetom. Sleduyushchaya prichina — kolichestvo iranskikh ballisticheskikh raket, chislo kotorykh planiruyetsya udvoit’ ili utroit’ v techeniye sleduyushchego goda. Po mneniyu izrail’skoy storony, eto ekzistentsial’naya ugroza dlya nikh, dazhe yesli ne prinimat’ vo vnimaniye yadernuyu programmu. I tret’ya prichina — aktivnaya peredacha oruzhiya i boyepripasov proksi-silam v regione. Po ofitsial’noy izrail’skoy versii, Iran razrabotal plan unichtozheniya gosudarstva Izrail’ s pomoshch’yu massirovannogo i tochnogo ognya so vsekh iranskikh frontov, nazemnykh vtorzheniy s gruzovikami s raznykh napravleniy, a takzhe putem podryva vnutrenney stabil’nosti i obostreniya otnosheniy v sosednikh Iordanii i Yegipte. Tel’-Aviv podgotovil operatsiyu, kotoraya mozhet prodlit’sya kak minimum neskol’ko dney. Takzhe ozhidayutsya intensivnyye obstrely so storony Irana. Podtverzhdena koordinatsiya i soglasovaniye s amerikanskimi voyennymi. Prezident SSHA Tramp uzhe zayavil, chto, khotya SSHA ne uchastvuyut v nanesenii udarov, oni budut zashchishchat’ Izrail’ (yesli ikh prizovut), a takzhe vyrazil nadezhdu, chto Iran vernetsya k mirnym peregovoram. Po predvaritel’nym otsenkam mezhdunarodnykh novostey, pervyy udar okazalsya neozhidannym dlya Irana kak po masshtabu, tak i po geografii. Iran, yestestvenno, initsiiruyet otvetnyy udar, kotoryy, kak ozhidayetsya, budet neizbezhen. Uzhe yest’ informatsiya, chto Iran zapustil okolo 100 BPLA v storonu Izrailya. Iran prodolzhayet prodvigat’ svoyu yadernuyu programmu, i deystviya Izrailya svidetel’stvuyut o tom, chto storony dostigli tochki nevozvrata. Khotya i govoryat o zavershenii udarnoy operatsii po vybrannym tselyam cherez nedelyu, eta voyennaya operatsiya imeyet dostatochnyy potentsial, chtoby pererasti v stolknoveniya regional’nogo masshtaba. V takom sluchaye nasha strana mozhet okazat’sya v krayne slozhnoy situatsii. Eto otdel’naya tema, k kotoroy my vsegda dolzhny byt’ gotovy. Shestoy raund yadernykh peregovorov SSHA i Irana sostoitsya v Maskate (Oman) v eto voskresen’ye, 15 iyunya, kotoryy na dannyy moment nikto ne otmenyal. Eto vse yeshche otkrytoye okno dlya prodolzheniya mirnykh peregovorov i, budem nadeyat’sya, ono budet sposobstvovat’ prekrashcheniyu i nerasshireniyu voyennykh deystviy. Ցույց տալ ավելին 2 975 / 5 000 Israeli military action against Iran could spark a regional war