LUYS Foundation has analyzed the socio-economic development of the Armenian economy in January-June 2025.
Thus:
Compared to the low growth at the beginning of the year, the economic activity growth rate (ERA) has accelerated since May 2025, mainly due to the base effect. Although the ERA slowed somewhat in June compared to May, the cumulative ERA for January-June continued to accelerate, reaching 6.3% compared to 5.7% in January-May. The acceleration in the growth rate is mainly due to the softening of the decline in industry.
Export figures remain at a fairly low level. The rate of decline in exports has softened somewhat, but remains at a fairly high level. In 2025, the cumulative decline for January-June was 52.8%. Such a significant decline is mainly due to the neutralization of gold re-export volumes. However, even taking into account this adjustment to export indicators, growth will only be 1.1%, which is very low and indicates a loss of export potential in recent years. The execution of the state budget has deviated significantly from the plan. Although the actual budget revenue indicators are overfulfilled compared to the plan, expenditures are significantly underfulfilled (by 240.2 billion drams, or 14.0%). As expected, a significant part of the underfulfillment (about 101.7 billion drams) falls on capital expenditures. The government is deviating from the previously planned policy, which, naturally, can have significant negative economic consequences. Underfulfillment of capital expenditures (about 25.6%) can have a significant negative impact on the modernization of key economic infrastructure, slowing down economic development and reducing the potential for long-term growth. It is known that the problem of inefficient use of capital investments is chronic, but no visible steps are being taken to address it.
The full analysis is available at the following link: https://shorturl.at/Cc14K.