The LUYS Foundation analyzed the socioeconomic development of the Armenian economy in January-February 2026.
Thus:
High economic growth is expected to continue in 2026, primarily due to growth in the mining industry. The current year began with a relatively high economic activity index (EAI), which slowed somewhat in February. In February, the RA Economic Activity Index (EAI) was 7.2%, down 0.4 percentage points compared to January. The EAI for January-February was 7.4%, with the industrial sector making the largest positive contribution, which, in turn, was primarily due to growth in the mining industry. The services, trade, and construction sectors also made positive contributions to the EAI.
Export and import indicators recovered. After a decline recorded in January, export and import volumes rebounded sharply in February, increasing by 37.6% and 26.9%, respectively. Although structural foreign trade data for February has not yet been published, an analysis of January’s figures suggests that the export growth was primarily driven by increased exports of mining products.
State budget revenues and expenditures are increasing, while capital expenditures are decreasing. In January-February 2026, both state budget revenues and expenditures increased. At the same time, capital expenditures significantly decreased by 58.8%. This sharp decline in capital expenditures is concerning, given their importance for long-term economic growth and infrastructure development.
Inflation has begun to accelerate. The 2026 inflation rate in February was 4.3%, accelerating by 0.5 percentage points compared to January. However, under these conditions, the central bank did not revise the refinancing rate in March, keeping it at 6.5%.
LIGHT Foundation