The logistics architecture of the South Caucasus is still being formed, and there is a struggle between world power centers to influence the future transport routes of the region. Under these conditions, it is fundamentally important for Armenia not to turn into just an area through which someone else's projects pass, but to preserve the opportunity to independently influence the ongoing processes and participate in them on its own terms. This was announced by Professor Ashot Yengoyan, speaking at the international expert conference "Prospects for the development of transport and logistics connections of the South Caucasus". According to him, a new transport and logistics architecture is currently being formed in the South Caucasus, within which the interests of regional states and the world's largest power centers intersect. According to Yengoyan, one of the main players in the region today is Azerbaijan, which claims the status of a medium-level regional power. The professor noted that all the power centers of the world, which are interested in the development and control of the future transport routes of the South Caucasus, have to take into account this circumstance. Against this background, according to Yengoyan, several logistics directions are formed at once, around which different interests are concentrated. In particular, China, the USA, Russia and the European Union have their own interests in the development of transport infrastructures in the region. Speaking about the role of China, Yengoyan noted that Beijing is among the states that, in any case, receive certain advantages from the restructuring of global logistics. According to him, China has been consistently developing alternative transport routes for many years, seeking to diversify its product supply channels and reduce dependence on individual destinations. In this context, the Middle Corridor, which passes through Central Asia and the South Caucasus, is in China's interests, primarily from a geo-economic point of view. At the same time, the professor noted, there are also certain geopolitical risks for Beijing in connection with the passage of the corresponding route through the Xinjiang-Uyghur Autonomous Region. Along with that, according to Yengoyan, China is also interested in the development of another important transport direction, the North-South Corridor. As one of the proofs of China's interest in the development of Armenia's transport infrastructure, the professor pointed out the participation of the Chinese side in the infrastructure projects of our country. In particular, we are talking about financing the construction and repair of the Tallinn-Gyumri highway. However, according to Yengoyan, China's interest in Armenia is not limited to the development of individual infrastructures. He believes that Beijing may also be interested in investing in Armenian enterprises and creating a competitive environment in the country's transport market. According to the professor, the presence of several participants and the competition between them can directly affect the cost of transport services. "The competitive environment contributes to the cheapening of cargo transportation, and this is primarily beneficial to China," Yengoyan noted. Referring to the role of the United States in the formation of the new transport architecture of the South Caucasus, the professor noted that Washington is reducing the scope of its presence in Europe and the Middle East, while paying more attention to it. focusing on the Asia-Pacific region. However, he emphasized, this does not mean that the USA is completely withdrawing from other regions of the world. According to Yengoyan, Washington can apply a target (point) presence model, in which specific countries and projects are selected, which allows to maintain political influence and receive economic benefits at the same time. In this context, the professor also considers the TRIPP project. According to Yengoyan, the implementation of TRIPP will require the US to conduct negotiations not only with the South Caucasus and other regional countries, but also with China and Russia, as the project affects the interests of major players. The professor considers different formats of participation in such projects as possible. In particular, according to him, it can refer to concession mechanisms as well as other forms of cooperation. According to Yengoyan, the European Union also seeks to enter the new transport architecture of the South Caucasus. In particular, he mentioned the European Global Gateway initiative, as well as the EU's interest in the development of the Middle Corridor. Along with that, the professor believes that the area of European political influence in the region has narrowed at present. In his assessment, the European Union has already lost a significant part of its previous influence in Azerbaijan, while its opportunities in Georgia have also been reduced. Under these conditions, Yengoyan believes, Armenia remains one of the main channels for maintaining the European presence in the South Caucasus. The professor separately referred to the role of Russia in the formation of the new transport and logistics architecture of the region. According to him, Russian positions in the South Caucasus are weakening, but they are not completely lost yet. Yengoyan noted that Moscow's possible withdrawal from the South Caucasus could become a serious geopolitical challenge. That is why, in his opinion, Russia should strive to reach agreements not only with individual states of the region, but also with the world's largest power centers. According to the professor, such an approach will allow Moscow to maintain at least a part of its positions in the region in the face of changes in the balance of power. "Russia will have to come to an agreement. More precisely, it will be easier for him to come to an agreement not with the three republics, but with the main players, the world power centers," Yengoyan specifically noted. Speaking about the position of Armenia itself in the emerging transport logistics system, the professor singled out three possible scenarios for the development of events. The first scenario, which Yengoyan describes as the most favorable, assumes the transformation of Armenia into a unique "bridge" that will connect different transport destinations. Moreover, it is fundamentally important that Armenia not only provides its territory for the passage of relevant routes, but also preserves the opportunity to independently participate in the projects implemented in the country. Ideally, according to the professor, Armenia should have a decisive voice in the implementation of such projects and ensure the supremacy of its own national interests. The second possible option is to turn Armenia into a "crossroads". In that case, according to Yengoyan's assessment, the country's field of independent participation in transport projects will be smaller. Along with that, Armenia will be able to maintain some control over the ongoing processes through its own legislation and the regulation of transport routes and borders. The professor considers the third scenario the least desirable. It implies the transformation of Armenia into a kind of "transit area" (passage), when various logistics projects of others pass through the territory of the country, while Armenia itself has practically no opportunity to influence the conditions of their operation. on Thus, according to Yengoyan, not only the fact that this or that transport route passes through its territory is of fundamental importance for Armenia. A much more important question is what role the country itself will be able to play in the implementation of these projects, to what extent it will be able to participate in decision-making and to what extent its own interests will be taken into account in the development of the new regional logistics system. during formation. "We have three ways," said the professor. According to him, in the conditions of the formation of the new transport architecture of the South Caucasus, Armenia should be guided by this logic. it should be about not only attracting routes to the territory of the country, but also influencing their development and preserving the possibility of determining the conditions of one's own participation. It should be noted that the conference "Prospects for the development of transport and logistics links of the South Caucasus" was organized by the Russian Research Institute of the National Research Institute of Communications Development of the Russian Federation, Yerevan State University. It is a joint initiative of the Center and the Russian-Armenian Relations Research Center of the Institute of Oriental Studies.
Armenia
In the new transport architecture of the South Caucasus, Armenia has 3 development scenarios: Yengoyan

Source: KARTSIQ