The front lines of the war in Ukraine are not in imminent danger of collapsing due to the suspension of military aid from the United States. However, the consequences of the pause will become more acute over time, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Two American officials told ABC News that about 90% of the weapons the United States has committed to providing to Ukraine under previous Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) defense assistance packages have already arrived in the country. In particular, they include ammunition and anti-tank systems.
According to the publication, the remaining 10% of weapons under the PDA are still scheduled to arrive in Ukraine by August 2025. Private arms contracts between Ukraine and American companies, many of which Kyiv has already paid for, will likely facilitate at least a small flow of weapons to Ukraine, “at least for the coming years.”
According to Oleh Katkov, editor-in-chief of the Ukrainian defense publication Defense Express, the United States supplies about 30% of the weapons for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, European partners supply another 30%, and Ukraine produces the remaining 40% of weapons through its own defense industry.
The ISW noted that Ukraine will continue to fight with the weapons it has now, with the weapons that European partners have provided and will continue to provide, as well as with the weapons that it produces on its own.
“A pause in the provision of assistance by the Trump administration will negatively affect Ukraine’s ability to defend itself and conduct offensive operations at the current pace. However, this will not lead to a complete collapse of the front in the coming months,” the report says.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War also noted that Russian troops will likely take advantage of the shortage of Ukrainian equipment, as they did during the previous suspension of US military aid in early 2024.
“The Russians will try to take advantage of the pause in U.S. aid to advance further in eastern and southern Ukraine and to justify their territorial claims to the entire territory of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions,” the ISW report says.