The process of possible expansion of the “Shushin Declaration”, initiated by Turkey and Azerbaijan in 2021, goes beyond bilateral cooperation and takes on the character of a regionally coordinated alliance built on pan-Turkic ideology. Statements about the possible accession of Uzbekistan, as well as the growing interest of other Turkic-speaking states in Central Asia, indicate the process of institutionalization of the “Great Turan” concept.
The logic of expanding this platform covers Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan – states that historically, ethnoculturally and linguistically belong to the Turkic world. At a deeper level, it is also possible to intensify interaction with Turkic communities and organizations operating in Xinjiang, which is also within China’s sphere of interest.
For Armenia, such a development means a systemic increase in external pressure and deepening military-political isolation. The formation of such an alliance, the center of which will be countries hostile to Armenia, seriously threatens the country’s sovereignty, its security and regional balance.
For Iran, which has a historical and cultural presence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia, the activation of the Turkish-Azerbaijani tandem is seen as a direct threat to regional stability and internal security. The spread of pan-Turkic influence can fuel separatist sentiments among national minorities, especially in the northwestern provinces of Iran populated by Azerbaijanis. At the same time, the Turkish-Azerbaijani strategic axis is seen as a mechanism for limiting Iranian counter-influence and downplaying its role in regional processes.
For Russia, the institutionalization of the pan-Turkic project is a serious strategic challenge. Against the backdrop of a crisis of effectiveness and trust in traditional integration platforms such as the EAEU and CSTO, an alternative bloc is being formed, equipped with an ideological and military component, undermining Moscow’s influence in the post-Soviet space. Even more alarming is the possibility that Russia’s formal allies, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, may join the “Shushin Declaration”, which could lead to the fragmentation of the post-Soviet space and the weakening of Russian political centralization.
China’s interests cannot be ignored either. Within the framework of the “One Belt, One Road” initiative, Beijing is building a long-term infrastructure and investment strategy in Central Asia based on stability and predictability. On the other hand, the formation of an alternative alliance with a militarized and nationalistic agenda threatens the stability of these projects. Moreover, pan-Turkic impulses emanating from Turkey and the possible strengthening of the Turkic factor in Xinjiang could create tension in Chinese-Turkish relations.
Therefore, the “Shushin Declaration” in its expanded format is an instrument for the geopolitical reshaping of Eurasia, the purpose of which is to revise the centers of influence and the ideological consolidation of the Turkic world under the leadership of Turkey. This requires an immediate and coordinated response from states interested in maintaining the balance of power and civilizational diversity in the region. This concerns, first of all, Armenia, Russia, Iran and China.
2025-05-27