Oil production in Russia may increase from 531 million tons in 2023 to 540 million tons five years ahead of schedule – as early as 2030 – and remain at this level until 2050, according to the text of the revised Energy Strategy-2050, which is available to TASS.
According to TASS, the corresponding document has been sent to the Russian government.
The initial draft of the strategy, which was also available to TASS, assumed that Russia, according to the target scenario, would reach oil production of 540 million tons by 2036.
The draft document also considered only two scenarios for the development of the Russian fuel and energy complex (FEC) – the target and the inertial. Two more scenarios have been added to the updated version of the document – the stress scenario and the “technical potential”.
According to the document, the stress scenario assumes a significant decrease in the production indicators of the FEC industries against the backdrop of a reduction in export opportunities and a general deterioration in external operating conditions. Thus, according to the stress scenario, oil exports from Russia may decrease to zero by 2050. And the “technical potential” scenario considers the maximum possible levels of production indicators based on the current and projected technical level of the fuel and energy complex industries, infrastructure constraints, but without taking into account the economic profitability and feasibility of possible measures.
According to the target scenario, oil exports will increase slightly compared to 2023 – from 234 million tons to 235 million tons by 2030 and will remain at this level until 2050. Oil supplies to the domestic market will increase from 297 million tons in 2023 to 305 million tons in the period from 2030 to 2050.
The volume of oil refining in 2030-2050 may amount to 283 million tons against 275 million tons in 2023. Export supplies of petroleum products in 2030-2036 may reach 141 million tons, by 2050 – 146 million tons against 132 million tons in 2023.
The strategy also notes that Russia has significant untapped resource potential to maintain oil production at a level of at least 540 million tons per year and increase free capacity to be able to flexibly respond to changes in the global market.
To do this, according to the document, it is necessary to create conditions for the introduction of unprofitable reserves, especially at depleted fields using tertiary oil recovery methods, increasing the oil recovery factor and developing new production regions.