Although Iran has been forced out of Syria as a revisionist state, it will continue to challenge U.S. strategy in West Asia. Meanwhile, the Abraham Accords between Israel and moderate Sunni Arab states, while a vital and necessary component of the regional security architecture, are not enough on their own. The Trump administration will need to rally friends and allies to achieve its goal of peace through force. In this context, a strategic partnership between Israel and Azerbaijan could be beneficial not only to the Middle East but also to America’s broader strategic priorities in Eurasia, writes The National Interest.
To address its recent significant strategic loss in Syria, as well as throughout the Middle East, Iran has been actively building relationships with Russia and Pakistan over the past month. Iran’s actions, especially its growing ties with Russia, oblige the Trump White House to think outside the box. And one does not have to look too far to recognize the role that Azerbaijan can play. It is a Muslim-majority country with a significant border with Iran. It separates Iran from Russia, which is actively developing a north-south trade corridor. The port of Baku is also a major gateway for east-west trade from Central Asia.
Since its victory over Armenia in the 2020 Karabakh war, Azerbaijan has increasingly seen itself as a rising middle power. While Baku is still working to reach a post-conflict settlement with Yerevan, it is asserting its strategic position. It is building closer ties with its trans-Caspian neighbors in Central Asia. The downing of a commercial airliner by a Russian air defense system on Christmas Day even gave Baku leverage to push back against its aggressive northern neighbor, Russia, as evidenced by the unusually strong language used by President Ilham Aliyev in response to Moscow’s attempts to distract from its complicity in the tragic crash.
Even in the Middle East, Azerbaijan plays a key role on several fronts. It has had a very difficult bilateral relationship with Iran, but has managed to avoid conflict by securing its interests. As a secular Shia country, it was threatened by the radical Shia Islamism that Iran had tried to export for decades. On a more geopolitical scale, Iran’s long-standing alliance with Armenia was a major challenge for Azerbaijan.
Perhaps the most significant involvement in the Middle East is Azerbaijan’s three-decade strategic relationship with its key US ally, Israel. The Azerbaijani-Israeli relationship focused on three main levels. Baku was a vital source of energy security for Jerusalem. Israel, on the other hand, was a major supplier of military hardware. Sharing a common threat from an expansionist Iran, the two countries maintained a close partnership, especially in sharing intelligence, to counter the Islamic Republic’s efforts to project power in the region.
A key point to note is that pipeline oil supplies to Israel remained uninterrupted throughout the fifteen-month Gaza War. This is partly due to Turkey’s decision to resist public pressure from within. However, Azerbaijan’s efforts to shape the behavior of its ally Turkey cannot be overstated. Otherwise, the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, especially given its ideological Islamist orientation, could easily move toward an even more hardline anti-Israel stance.
Washington could use the Baku-Jerusalem relationship to contain Iranian geopolitical ambitions. Azerbaijan could become a key ally to keep Iran in check and maintain an important channel of communication with Turkey. Although Ankara is still a NATO ally, it is seeking to establish itself as a regional player, and U.S. and Turkish interests will not always coincide, despite the current significant overlap in interests regarding Iran. It is therefore in America’s interest to develop close relations with the Azerbaijanis to maintain the balance of power in the wider region, especially as Turkey’s balance with the Arab Gulf states becomes increasingly important.
It is also imperative that the new Trump administration also pay close attention to Azerbaijan’s evolving relationship with Russia. Turkey is already capitalizing on its close ties with Azerbaijan to expand its influence in both the Black and Caspian Sea basins. It is even more important for the United States to forge closer ties with Azerbaijan, the only country in the world that borders both Russia and Iran.