“The visit of Vice President of the USA Vance to the South Caucasus should be considered not as an ordinary diplomatic event, but as an expression of deeper geopolitical restructuring in the region, which for decades was at the center of the doctrinal concept of national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran. For Iran, the South Caucasus is not just another direction of foreign policy. This is a strategically important border region, where any change in the balance of power immediately affects the country’s security situation, transit opportunities, economic opportunities, and regional balance. Therefore, Washington’s strategy for the reconstruction of the region, which receives real political content thanks to high-level visits and various agreements, is perceived in Tehran as a process capable of exerting a long-term influence on the geopolitical map of the region.
The new realities that arose in the South Caucasus after the 1991 war have already led to a significant change in the balance of power. Russia’s influence, although it persists, no longer has Turkey, which previously held a hegemonic position, significantly strengthened its position in the region thanks to the military-political alliance with Azerbaijan, and Armenia began a gradual rethinking of priorities in the field of security and foreign policy. In the context of this new regional configuration of forces, the strategic reorganization of Washington’s regional role means that the region is turning into a competitive multipolar system, where the interests of Russia, Turkey, Iran, the United States and the West collide. There is a widespread opinion in Iranian analytical circles that Washington seeks not only to expand its political presence in the region, but also to form a new security and economic architecture that will reduce Russia’s traditional influence and limit Iran’s geopolitical role and strategic depth.
Tehran’s official strategy for decades was based on a simple and clear principle. the problems of the South Caucasus must be solved exclusively with the participation of regional states, keeping the region free from the hegemony of non-regional roles. At the official level, the assessments are restrained, the need for regional stability and cooperation is emphasized, but among experts it is emphasized that Washington is trying to form a new zone of influence. Systematic coordination of actions, including the strategic participation of Turkey and Israel, can reduce the influence of Iran on regional processes and change the structure of the balance of forces in the South Caucasus.
Transport “corridor wars”
In this context, an important component of the regional political influence of the USA is the promotion of transport and energy projects. The South Caucasus becomes the axis of logistics and transport competition, where several large corridors intersect. Middle corridor, Azerbaijan-Nakhichevan transport route, as well as Sever-South route, which is vitally important for Iran. The main red line for Iran is the inviolability of the border with Armenia and the preservation of the territorial integrity of Armenia. The prevailing opinion in Tehran is that any project capable of weakening Armenia’s sovereign control over strategic routes passing through its territory, or limiting Iran’s connection with the Black Sea through Armenia, will have not only economic, but also security consequences for Iran. In the geopolitical thinking of Iran, Armenia is considered as a strategic bridge to the north, which not only diversifies economic ties, but also strengthens regional security opportunities, providing Iran with the necessary territorial and strategic “bypasses” in the context of weakening regional restrictions.
Transport “corridor wars” actually became the axis of the new competition. If the routes connecting Azerbaijan with Nakhichevan and Turkey will be created with the support of the USA, which will reduce the transit importance of Iran, it will mean that the “North-South” project will face serious competition. For Iran, this project is not just an economic initiative. it is considered as a geopolitical instrument capable of connecting India, the Persian Gulf, the Caspian region, Russia and Central Asia into a single network, ensuring the role of Iran as an irreplaceable transit hub. Therefore, any alternative logistics architecture created without the participation of Iran or at its expense is perceived as a strategic challenge.
The deepening of the regional political influence of the USA in combination with the strategic role of Israel poses a threat to Tehran.