How the five East-West routes divide the region and why the TRIPP project is a trap The South Caucasus resembles a huge geopolitical construction site, where in fact not just roads are being designed, but a new influence. � borders. Right now, five ambitious logistics projects are facing each other on this piece of land, and behind each of them stands its global master with his own wallet and political interests. a. TRIPP project (Trump Route for international Peace and Prosperity). b. The deep-water port of Anaklia in Georgia is the sea gate of the "Middle Corridor", where Chinese state capital actively enters. c. The Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) railway is a working and time-tested connection between Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey. d. Araks Corridor — a land route being built along the southern bank of the Araks River to allow trains and trucks to bypass Armenia. You: e. The Turkmenistan-Iran-Turkey railway is a southern route that allows cargo from Central Asia and China to bypass the Caspian Sea by land. On paper, the American TRIPP initiative, the agreement on which was being discussed in the Armenian parliament these days, is presented as a "path of peace and prosperity". But if we put aside the sweet-tongued diplomatic packaging and turn on critical thinking, it becomes obvious. before us is not an economic project, but a tough political gambit. Moreover, TRIPP in its current form deprives Armenia of its right to vote and de-facto turns into the main tool of the pan-Turkic geopolitical alliance, linking Baku and Ankara together under the American financial package. Let's understand why this project sounds nice only from the lips of government propagandists, relying on the real figures of global and regional cargo transportation. 1. Simple economics. real throughput versus the illusion of throughput The main economic problem of TRIPP is that it is extremely expensive, and in the conditions of fierce competition, there is not much to transport with it. According to various estimates, building a modern railway, highway, power lines and pipes from scratch in the harsh rocks of Syunik will cost more than 2.4 billion dollars. The hope is that the costs will be offset by mass transit. But let's look at the actual statistics of cargo movement between the East (China and Central Asia) and the West (Europe and Turkey). 1.1 The rapid growth of the "Middle Corridor". Thanks to bypassing Russia, the Trans-Caspian route is experiencing a boom. in the last year, the volume of container transportation increased by 93%, and the total cargo flow through the Caspian Sea exceeded 4.1 million tons. More than 13.3 million tons of cargo are transported annually through all transport corridors of Azerbaijan. Baku officially announces the goal of increasing East-West transit to 15 million tons per year. 1.2 But BTC pulls the entire "land" blanket over itself. The railway is open at almost full capacity after extensive reconstruction. Now it can serve 5 million tons of cargo per year, and the strategic goal is 17 million. Flows from China and Central Asia already go through these rails. Even after the reconstruction, however, it is significantly undercrowded. Why should business divert cargo to the still-under-construction TRIPP, whose initial design capacity will be only a modest 2 million tons by 2028, if there is an underloaded and operational route? 1.3 Anaklia will take away the sea volumes. In Georgia, hot work is going on in the port of Anaklia. The first phase will be launched by 2029 and will provide a capacity of 7.8 million tons at once, with the prospect of increasing to several tens of million tons in the future. Large Eurasian cargoes will go by sea through Georgia. There will simply not be a free product base for TRIPP. 1.4 Price wars with Iran. Iran and Azerbaijan are already actively using their Araks Corridor. Since there are no foreign shareholders and private investors, Baku and Tehran can set any tariff, even if they work at a loss for the sake of political units. The American TRIPP Development Company, bound by strict obligations to Western investors, is obliged to show a profit. they are unlikely to be able to compete with Iranian state capital in terms of tariffs. 2. Great geopolitics. instead of "peace" a keg of gunpowder By promising stability to the region, Washington is actually solving its problems: building a "sanitary cordon" and isolating Iran and Russia. But in this game, the USA played unintentionally (or perhaps intentionally) in favor of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS). 2.1 Pan-Turkic dream at the American expense. For centuries, Ankara and Baku have dreamed of a direct, unhindered land connection that would connect the Turkic world from Istanbul to Central Asia. Armenian Syunik has always been a geographical barrier for them. And here is the paradox. it is American money and TRIPP's legal protection that make that dream come true. Turkey has already started the construction of the Kars-Diluju branch for 15 million tons to connect to Nakhichevan and the future TRIPP corridor. The anti-Turkish project gets a perfect disguise. the corridor will operate under the US flag, and Baku and Ankara will use it. 2.2 Neighbors' anger. Iran sees TRIPP as an existential threat. The appearance of American structures and, possibly, security services on the northern border of the Islamic Republic causes anger in Tehran. Iranian officials are already hinting openly. if American infrastructure appears near their borders, that corridor will become a legitimate target in any escalation. Instead of "prosperity", the region will receive a potential zone of military operations. 3. Sovereignty for sale. How does Armenia in transit lose the right to vote? The saddest conclusion in this story concerns the subjectivity of the countries through whose territory the routes pass. 3.1 Armenia. control only on paper. The Yerevan regime assures us that the customs office and borders in the 42-kilometer section will remain Armenian. Yes, legally it is written like that on paper. But with only a 26% stake in the management company (compared to 74% in the USA), Armenia turns into a mere tenant. Deciding who will cross the road, what the tariffs will be and where the profits will go will actually be decided in Washington. Syunik gave Armenia to the rule of a foreign consortium for 49 years, becoming a hostage in the foreign war between the USA and Iran and, in fact, playing in favor of the alliance of Baku and Ankara. 3.2 Georgia. farewell to monopoly, but preservation of sovereignty. Before the 44-day war and the start of TRIPP, Georgia was the transit ruler in the Caucasus. all roads passed through it. The new project undermines that monopoly, depriving Tbilisi of some of the levers of regional economic and political influence. However, it should also be emphasized that Georgia owns all the infrastructures passing through its territory in the BTC, and in Anaklia, unlike TRIPP, it has a 51% share. 3.3 Iran. his own master. Against this background, Iran shows what true sovereignty is. Tehran does not share ownership with anyone on its routes (Araks Corridor). Yes, Western money does not go there due to sanctions, but Iran maintains absolute freedom of action. He can block the road at any moment, while Yerevan and Tbilisi have to adapt to the interests of the USA and China. Instead of an epilogue The TRIPP project is a classic example of how sovereignty, economy and national interests are sacrificed to geopolitics. Its logistical value is highly questionable, and the geopolitical risks are huge. With a modest starting capacity of only 2 million tons, against the background of the already operating 5 million-ton BTC and the mega-Anaklia under construction, Washington needs this project exclusively to fight against Iran and Russia. For Armenia, the attempt to hide under the financial and political umbrella of the USA may end with the fact that the strategically important Syunik (and not only) will turn into a foreign enclave that serves the pan-Turkic interests of Baku and Ankara, and The territory of Armenia can be considered a legitimate target for Iran. For the future, logistics wars will be won by those who stand up for their own interests, not those who rent their land to the powerful of the world. And we are not among the winners... Armen Ashotyan Vice President of RPA