"LUYS" Foundation analyzed the socio-economic developments of the RA economy in 2026. in January-September. Thus. 2026 According to the results of January-September, the growth of economic activity is gradually losing the pace of the previous months. The indicators of September show that the slowdown in economic growth is accompanied by the deepening of differences between branches. The main "pillar" of the 6.9% growth of TAC in January-September is services, while construction continues to expand. done at a high pace. At the same time, a decline was recorded in industry for the second month in a row, the nine-month output of agriculture decreased by 4.8%, and the growth of trade remained weak. This picture is worrisome from the point of view of long-term sustainability of growth, since the activation of services and construction is not accompanied by an adequate expansion of the manufacturing sectors. Following the weak recovery of exports in August, the fall in September shows that the positive movement did not become sustainable. Exports fell by 18.6% in September, bringing the January-September decline to 8.0% amid a 9.5% increase in imports. In the product structure, the decrease in the export of precious stones and metals is only partially compensated by the increase in mineral production. Also worthy of attention is the 35.2% decrease in the export of vegetable products in January-August. Under the influence of Russian restrictions, these developments increase the importance of diversification of export markets and product structure. The September increase in the budget surplus was combined with a further reduction in the investment component of expenditures. In January-September, current expenditures increased by 17.5%, while capital expenditures decreased by 23.8% from the previous year's level. Therefore, the increase of the surplus in itself is not a sufficient basis for a positive evaluation of the budgetary developments. If this expenditure ratio is maintained, the reduction of public investment will limit the expansion of the economy's production capabilities and the strengthening of the foundations for further growth. The significant underperformance of capital expenditures stands out in the budget execution indicators. 222.4 billion drams or 39.8% of the planned capital expenditures were not implemented in January-September. The underperformance of general expenses by 302.9 billion drams and the overperformance of revenues by 166.0 billion drams formed a difference of 468.9 billion drams between the planned and actual balances. In these conditions, the fact that a significant part of the planned state investments was not implemented in the reporting period is also important for the assessment of the budget surplus. In the conditions of increasing financial resources, their direction is also important for the quality of growth. Along with the acceleration of credit growth in September, services provided the largest contribution to the growth of funds provided to residents, while the contribution of industry remained small. And the long-term outcome of the financing expansion will also depend on the extent to which it is converted into new production capacity. Remittances continue to support domestic demand, but they have a volatile nature, as evidenced by the decline in net inflows in August.
Armenia
A significant part of the state investments planned by the budget are not implemented. "Luys" Foundation

Source: KARTSIQ